Introduction:
Israel will lose strategically and in the long term from this war. This is what the Israelis must think about from now. Indeed, other losses will affect several countries, perhaps the most important of which are the countries that support Israel, led by the United States. As a result of the reaction to the shock that Israel was exposed to last October 7th , which drove its political and military leaders crazy, indifferent to any political, legal, criminal or economic consequences, continuing to defy international law, wasting all its rules, bypassing all opportunities granted and rejecting all appeals and demands made to it to stop the war, even from its allies and friends. Potential losses will appear at the strategic level, some of which are related to political issues such as the achievements achieved in the path of normalization, some of which are economic related to the decline in opportunities for regional economic cooperation with it in proposed projects, including the New Economic Corridor, and some of which are moral losses related to the negative view of everything that is Israeli in the world, the blood of children and women and youth of Gaza will continue to haunt the mental image of any official or unofficial Israeli movement. There are losses that are expected to affect Israeli society, most notably the issue of reverse migration and economic and societal issues whose effects will appear in the medium and long term.
In this strategic assessment, we are trying to shed light on the next day after the war in Gaza, in terms of the hemorrhage of potential losses for Israel in particular, regardless of the results of this war, and the extent of the occupation’s ability to reach its declared political goals from this war, which is getting rid of the political presence of Hamas. And the military in the Gaza Strip and the establishment of civilian rule subject to its political and security control at all levels.
First: Temporary gains for Israel:
In the wake of the shock of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Israel engaged in an aggression that is still ongoing at the time of writing these lines on the Gaza Strip, in which it used all its military, security, political and material capabilities, used internationally prohibited weapons, and also used methods of siege, starvation and slow killing, in defiance of all conventions and customs. Stable international law and international humanitarian law, in the process of collective punishment of civilians in the Gaza Strip. Despite all attempts to stop the war machine and the efforts of Arab and regional countries, led by Egypt, in light of an unfavorable international situation and unprecedented Western American support, Israel persists in abusing the defenseless Palestinian people, in implementation of corrupt plans and dreams, the most important of which is displacement and getting rid of the burden of the Gaza Strip.
It is clear so far that there are temporary gains that Israel has achieved through this war, although some of them are subject to gradual erosion over time, and we can summarize them as follows:
- Unifying the internal front behind the Netanyahu government, which before this war was suffering from a severe political crisis that affected the army, the security and military services, and the reserve forces, which are the backbone of the Israeli army. Through this war, Netanyahu was able to transfer his internal crisis abroad, and was able to temporarily silence the opposition with all its components. In the face of the state of war, the opposition was forced to accept a national emergency government in which some opposition figures such as Benny Gantz and others participated.
- Israel’s success in convincing the Western world in particular of its political and security narrative for the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and its obtaining, so far, unprecedented political and military support and cover that ensures its freedom of movement at all levels.
- This war helped reduce the gap that existed in Netanyahu’s relationship specifically with the current American administration, especially with Netanyahu’s well-known history with the Democratic Party since the Obama administration, in which Netanyahu demonstrated a challenge to the American administration in many situations, even at the internal American level.
- A change in favor of Israel in the European position, which in previous stages of conflict has always maintained a reasonable distance from both sides, without this scandalous bias that this war created from important European countries such as Britain, Germany and others. These countries and others were not satisfied with the ceiling of political support, but rather provided support at the military level.
- The political position of the Group of Seven major countries remains in favor of Israel so far, which was expressed at the recent meeting of G7 leaders in Japan on the tenth of this month of November, where they continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself, label Hamas as terrorist, and administer a discussion on the issue of ending Hamas’ rule in Gaza and the future of the Strip after the war.
Second: Strategic losses:
The erosion of the global support front:
The gains that Israel has achieved so far from its war on Gaza are all vulnerable to gradual erosion, due to the movements of global public opinion, which have begun to pressure its government to return to reasonable rationality in its positions, at least from a humanitarian perspective and from the perspective of international law, and this is beginning to become clear in the position of some European countries. On top of them is France, whose president a few days ago was directly attacked by Netanyahu, who saw his positions as weak and serving Hamas. Also, the positions of the United States have begun to be somewhat cautious in dealing with Netanyahu’s ambitions, including, but not limited to, Washington’s rejection of Israel’s occupation of the Gaza Strip, as well as its rejection of the policy of displacement, as US National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan used the term “displacement” for the first time in his talk about This issue was made a few days ago.
It also became clear that the Israeli perception of the post-war issue is not accepted by the supporting parties in general, so talk began about the necessity of a political solution and the continued adoption of the two-state formula as a basis for the solution, in addition to pressure regarding the humanitarian track and aid, which undoubtedly contradicts the desire of Netanyahu, who wanted to exploit a historic opportunity. Through it, he destroys the dream of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip through the policy of evacuating the Gaza Strip and transferring its problem to neighboring countries, and then returning to annexing the West Bank according to a declared and well-known project led by Netanyahu and the extremist religious movement group led by Ben Gavier, Soterich, and others.
The erosion of the home front in Israel:
The Israeli internal gains in terms of alignment and unity are also at risk of being eroded if this war lasts for a long time and Netanyahu is unable to achieve his political goals, as voices from the opposition led by Lapid have begun to appear, accusing Netanyahu of responsibility for what happened on October 7, while the Israeli interior at the level of institutions and agencies bears witness. The security and military forces interacted like fire under the ashes regarding determining the scope of each party’s responsibility for what happened. They all know that it is tantamount to this war having ended, investigation committees will be formed similar to the Agrnad Committee that was formed after their defeat in the October War of 1973 at the hands of the Egyptian forces, and these committees will determine The political fate of many of the current political authority figures in Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
In addition, the families of the kidnapped, hostages and prisoners still constitute an element of mounting pressure on the internal situation, through their ongoing demonstrations and their demands for Netanyahu to achieve a real breakthrough in this file.
Demographic decline and reverse migration:
This is an issue that has been and continues to be one of the concerns of the occupying state since its founding until now. It knows that one of the pillars of its survival is the ability to mobilize the largest number of its supporters around the world in one land to confront the population increase of the Arab peoples surrounding it, and with this power being subjected to repeated tests. From time to time to the threat, reverse migrations from abroad gradually escalate, especially from European Jews who prefer to leave and stay away from the resistance. Israel has taken a position of secrecy and not disclosed the real numbers of those who emigrate abroad in an exit without return for fear that this will affect its political and social entity and challenges the sayings and myths that created this occupied “state”, until it gradually began to address this issue after the escalation of Palestinian resistance operations and direct and repeated confrontations between the two parties, which made life almost impossible in Israel, in which they promised Jews from all regions of the world a state. It preserves their security and provides them with a means of livelihood and luxury, which has not been achieved in light of these repeated wars, with which the feeling of secure and security has disappeared compared to life in other regions, especially for Jews of European origin, who for the occupying state represent the backbone of life there and are relied upon greatly in the administrative and political aspect, which makes their repeated departures a major crisis. The formative nature of Israel as a nascent society made up of different ethnicities and cultures has led it to embrace many factors that disintegrate it, in addition to the resistance and steadfastness of the Palestinian people in their land, and their resistance to the occupier, which confirmed the truth of the undeclared matters in Israel, which are This society is essentially based on a set of benefits that have been threatened by disintegration and disappearance, as a result of the reaction that will appear on its “citizens” of feeling the desire to leave and not stay, as the basis for which they came is no longer of a positive nature, as estimates indicate. Since October 7, 2023, there have been more than (140) thousand cases of mass exodus from Israel abroad, not to mention the displacement cases estimated at hundreds of thousands of Israelis.
The term reverse migration is known in Israeli contexts as “Yordim”, which is a Hebrew term used to describe Jews who leave Israel. This is a situation that has remained present throughout the history of the establishment of this occupying entity, and a number of problems have led to the emergence of a situation of reverse immigration, which is the opposite. Among the policies taken by Israeli governments in an attempt to defend the idea of a state entity based on settlement and the transfer of all the world’s Jews to the land of Palestine, and in general, the reality of reverse migration from Israel can be referred to as follows:
- Statistics indicate that in the period between 1948 and 1950, 10% of Jewish immigrants in Israel left with the founding of the state to other regions and countries. Indeed, the number of immigrants from Israel in 1967 reached more than (180) thousand Jews, despite the measures that the occupation governments were trying to take at that time to reduce this phenomenon.
- The nineties period, beginning in 1990, witnessed the departure of (14,200) people from Israel at a rate of (3) people for every thousand people. This was seen as one of the consequences of the first Palestinian intifada that took place in 1987, which prompted successive Israeli governments to increase advocacy campaigns for the immigration of Jews to its lands, and the same thing was repeated after the second Palestinian Intifada in 2000, when Israel witnessed an increase in the level of reverse migration. The number of Jews who arrived in Israel declined to (21) thousand in 2003, after their number was (61) thousand in 2000, and talk began in Israeli circles about the escalation of reverse migration and that Israel has become threatened in terms of its depth and demographic security, and the call for the necessity of searching for Solutions to this problem.
- Official data issued by the Israeli government revealed that more than 25% of adult Jews are thinking about immigrating from Israel, while 6% have actually initiated immigration procedures. Reports also confirm that there is a state of reluctance to travel to Israel among European Jews, especially from France and Jews. Western Europe in general, who, as previously mentioned, are considered an essential part of the administration of the “state” in Israel.
- According to the Jewish Agency, the percentage of Jews living in Israel out of all the Jews in the world is 45.3%, meaning that 54.7% of the world’s Jews do not belong to Israel. This weakens the claim that Israel is the “state of the Jews” or that it constitutes an attractive political model.
- One of the statistics revealing the increasing level of reverse immigration from Israel indicates that there are (12) thousand Jews leaving Israel annually, and in April of 2022 a report prepared by the newspaper “Israel Hayom” revealed that 33% of Israelis are considering reverse immigration, and their reasons varied between :
o 40% indicated the high level of living costs
o 22% indicated a deterioration in the security situation
o 18% cited social and political divisions
o 20% indicated other reasons.
- The Portuguese Immigration Service announced that (21) thousand Israelis have applied to obtain its citizenship since the beginning of 2023, ranking first among other nationalities applying for Portuguese citizenship.
- The Palestinian resistance has made the Israelis lose the idea of a sense of security that did not originally exist in that country, which was confirmed by an American report issued by the CIA in 2015 following an evaluation of the war on Gaza in 2014 that reached the conclusion that any further confrontation between Israel and another party It will accelerate the increase in reverse migration rates, and immigration rates from Israel have increased significantly, as confirmed by data from the Israeli Ministry of Absorption and Immigration.
- In 2020, an increase in the rate of reverse migration from Israel abroad was recorded at 74.9% compared to 73.4% for Jewish immigrants coming from abroad. The ministry’s report warned that this number is likely to increase if the Palestinian resistance succeeds in threatening what it called “ Israel’s security.
- Considering the current situation, we find that as soon as the Al-Aqsa Flood operation took place on October 7th , 2023, initial estimates indicate the displacement of more than (500) thousand Israelis in a way that the society of that occupying entity was not accustomed to, as one of those who fled after the operation said in an investigation conducted by The Israeli newspaper (Haaretz) under the title “Fight Hamas or Run”: “We fled to Cyprus immediately after the first siren sounded on Saturday. My intuition told me that this was not just another round, and my nerves before that had been on edge for 10 months because of this country.” “The one who went crazy on us.” Therefore, it can be said that the Al-Aqsa Flood operation led to a state of fear and panic among Israeli society, the images of which were represented in the following set of images:
Continuing Israeli fears that the success of the resistance in Palestine will lead to the rise and emergence of other movements resisting the Israeli presence.
The Israeli view of the tactical change in Palestinian resistance operations, the increase in its strength and ability to reach distant goals, and the diversity in the nature of goals.
The ability of the resistance in Palestine to build military systems and possess weapons that are now capable of confronting the advanced military systems that Israel used to praise.
o The feeling of public and popular opinion in Israel that the equation of Israel’s security superiority over its neighbors no longer exists and that the resistance can now threaten Israel existentially, which also means striking the balance of national immunity in Israel, which refers to the relationship between society in Israel and the military and security establishment, as Israel may witness high wave of reverse migration.
These security developments add a new dimension to the issue of societal racism, which led many Jews in the occupied Palestinian territories to think about leaving and not returning again, which was confirmed by an opinion poll conducted in January 2022, with a sample of Israelis. 41% indicated that society in Israel has become He expelled his citizens as a result of racism, and 33% of Israelis are thinking about leaving without returning, and 66% of the survey participants who are between (18) and (24) years old are thinking about leaving, while 53% of Israelis who are between the ages of (25) to (34) about leaving Israel permanently.
Strengthening the extremist religious movement and its danger to political stability
In the past few years, which preceded Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Israel witnessed an escalation of political conflicts within its political system, especially in the context of describing this conflict as a conflict between “religion” on the one hand and what is called “state democracy” on the other hand, due to the rise The increasing right-wing extremist movement and their penetration into government ministries and their existing policies towards controlling the reins of government, which prompted many Jews to think about leaving the occupied territories towards Europe and the West in general, as a result of they began to see the loss of the “identity of the state” on which “Israel” was founded. “.
Possible declines in the Israeli economy
Some indicators make it clear that the Israeli economy will witness major crises as a result of this war waged on the Gaza Strip, which affects the work of basic sectors in the Israeli economy, such as tourism, investment and capital flows, resulting in a decline in the level of the Israeli currency (the shekel), and pushing the government towards announcing About issuing bonds worth $30 billion from foreign exchange reserves. Israel, like others, depends on trade and cooperation with other countries, in terms of economic interests, trade relations, economic exchange, and other issues that fall within the system of economic work of any country. Since the nature of the economy is affected by what surrounds it, the war that Israel launches on the Gaza Strip has effects on The Israeli economy, which can be indicated through a number of indicators, namely:
- The impact of the war on the Israeli civil aviation system: Israeli air traffic was affected as a result of this war, due to the repeated closure of airports and the cessation of many flights to and from the occupied territories, as United Airlines announced that it expects a decline in its shares on the global stock market to 25%. If air traffic to Israel does not resume, this comes in light of the decline that air traffic has witnessed in Israel and the losses it suffered during the Corona pandemic, which greatly affected the aviation sector, and in an attempt by the Israeli government to avoid a crisis in this sector, it has announced The Finance Committee of the Israeli Knesset announced providing support to the aviation sector, specifically insurance companies, worth $6 billion as incentives for companies to cover insurance expenses. According to Israeli government estimates, it is expected that the level of transportation services in general will decline to 4 billion shekels, or approximately one billion dollars, in 2023, and the number will rise to 12 billion shekels during 2024.
- The decline in the value of the shekel: Since the outbreak of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, the Israeli currency (the shekel) has witnessed a devaluation against the dollar, as the exchange rate of one dollar reached more than five shekels, which prompted the Israeli government to allocate $30 billion from reserves to support The currency, and in the face of this decline in the value of the currency, the credit rating agency Moody’s expected to reduce Israel’s sovereign debt rating to negative.
Decline in the volume of investments and the flight of start-up capital: The Israeli war in the Gaza Strip affected the level of investments, as it led to the exit of 60% of foreign direct investments from Israel, in addition to the decline in the index of start-up companies in Israel, as they now have two options: either exiting to the capitals of foreign countries or fleeing to Israeli cities as far north as Haifa. This situation reflects the desire that has grown among society for the necessity of leaving Israel, which will lead to the loss of competencies in economic or other fields and may lead to the withdrawal of investments and thus the emergence of an unemployment crisis that will increase requests for asylum abroad, and this will lead to a slowdown in economic growth and restrict opportunities for development and competitiveness for Israel. “In the global market.
- Impact on the size of the Israeli workforce: The Israeli government has taken a decision to mobilize about 350,000 reserve soldiers, which represents about 8% of the working population, which will lead to the loss of large numbers of the workforce and harm several sectors of the economy, including the technology sector, the engine The main source of growth, which may lead to a decline in production, especially in sectors that depend on the proportion of younger workers. Therefore, it is expected that there will be a decrease in the volume of Israeli exports, through which the current account will transform from a surplus of 2% of the gross domestic product to a deficit that may reach 2.5%, according to estimates by Israeli banks, which make estimates for dealing with conflicts based on the government’s ability to cover expenses and bear Crisis sales in times of war from one month to six months.
Third: Regional and global losses:
Since its outbreak, this war has revealed the true face of Israel, which had an angry reaction that Israel did not expect, especially from Western public opinion. In general, the impact of this war on Israel’s foreign relations can be noted as follows:
- The erosion of Israel’s global image as a democratic state. The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip has affected the international perception of Israel, especially at the popular level, which means influencing Israel’s attempts over the years to beautify its image by relying on public relations companies or others. Given the absence of the issue of the justice of the war waged by Israel and the nature of the civilian targets that fall as a result Israeli violence resulted in massive demonstrations in all capitals and countries of the world opposing Israel and demanding an end to this barbaric war. The capitals of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France witnessed demonstrations against even the policies and media of their countries, which tried at the beginning of the events to condemn “the attacks that It is launched by Hamas against the Israelis, forgetting the occupation in which the Palestinian people have lived for more than 70 years. However, the tragic situation that civilians in Gaza are experiencing after the Israeli air strikes has worsened, and the popular situation in the West has turned to supporting the Palestinian people. This bad image that has formed among popular public opinion internationally has led to fears within Israel that this overwhelming international anger at the practices of the Israeli army will be reflected and make its “citizens” targets for possible attacks abroad. There have become Israeli popular fears that this war will get out of control and turn The confrontation led to a broader confrontation between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank, especially at a time when the far right in Israel and extreme Jewish nationalists exploited the situation to incite “anti-Arab” sentiment in the country, which sparked a number of hate attacks launched by armed extremist nationalists on Palestinian civilians.
- Striking the path of regional economic cooperation. It is known that Israel has been trying since the nineties to promote what is called economic peace, and to entice some countries with the feasibility of economic cooperation with it and to benefit from its technical, financial and other capabilities. There is no doubt that what it achieved during the past decade has become difficult to complete or develop, and some of it is even threatened with stopping, as much Some of the countries that began to establish these relations with Israel took immediate steps backward in light of this aggression, and they must do so, as the internal public opinion of these countries will not accept anything less than this position. Rather, it is likely that its influence will increase in the future as a disruptive and obstructive element in relations with Israel.
- Possible stumble in the path of the New Economic Corridor project (India Corridor -Europe) Which was announced at the G20 summit in India in September 2023, in which Israel plays a central role alongside some Arab Gulf states, and it is expected that in light of the current unrest and the results of the Gaza war, it will automatically affect this project and the opportunities for its implementation. There is no doubt that the issue of the existence of Israel in this project will cause embarrassment to some countries in the region that are interested in this project and support it. Especially with the revelation of some threads of the project and that it primarily aims to pass through the Gaza Strip.
- The decline of the Abrahamic peace project. Several countries have taken political decisions against Israel, including countries participating in the Abrahamic Peace Process to withdraw their ambassadors from Israel. Although this step is limited, it reveals the existence of a real and future impasse in how this project, which has taken rapid steps over the past two years, can be continued especially with countries such as Bahrain, the Emirates, Morocco and others. Also, the rapprochement that Israel seeks with other Arab countries in accordance with the Abraham Accords, especially towards Saudi Arabia, is unlikely now, at least in the near term, as the Israeli barbarism against the Gaza Strip has obstructed the implementation of the Abraham Accords with other Arab countries, and the ruling political systems in the region must strive. Towards the necessity of registering a positive position against Israel in an attempt to calm the angry Arab public, this is what prompted the Bahraini parliament to announce the suspension of economic relations with Israel, recall its ambassador to Tel Aviv, and suspend flights between the two sides. Based on this vision, the issue of establishing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia has become off the table, at least in the near future, even after the end of this war, as some Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia, had no choice but to take clear steps to refuse to condemn Hamas from one side only, without blaming the Israeli party is responsible for the escalation, in addition to several moves it took with other Gulf countries in international institutions in which it supported the Egyptian and Jordanian positions both in the United Nations and the success in issuing the recent General Assembly resolution, which expressed the international community’s will to stop the war despite the non-binding resolution. The Kingdom also contributed to gathering some Arab and regional efforts rejecting the displacement of Palestinians and calling for an end to the war through its call to hold some summits, including (the ASEAN Gulf Summit – the Arab Islamic Summit), and we do not forget to point out that steps have been taken backwards with regard to the right of passage of Israeli aircraft and their crossing of Saudi airspace and the airspace of other Gulf countries.
- The beginning of a new path with Iran. Israel is watching with concern the course of the Iranian movement in this crisis, and it has been made clear that there is an Iranian desire to exploit this crisis in bringing about a rapprochement with the positions of the major Arab powers, led by Egypt, after it had previously succeeded in calming the course with Saudi Arabia through Chinese mediation, and you may notice an intensity In the Iranian-Egyptian contacts during this crisis (two contacts at the level of foreign ministers and a summit meeting between President Sisi and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the recent Arab-Islamic summit. It was made clear that Egypt has succeeded, through this crisis and until now, in charting a clear path through which it was possible to attract Iran for the equation and strategy of regional stability, such that Israel misses the opportunity to ignite war in the region, a position that still exists at the time of writing these lines, although its continued survival depends on many other factors, including Israel’s move to attack Lebanon and Hezbollah directly, despite that. This Iranian-Arab and Egyptian rapprochement in particular, in light of the impact of this crisis, remains one of Israel’s most important strategic losses. Israel has always tried to fragment the region and sow discord between its countries and talk about Iran being the source of the threat. We remember the attempts to establish an Arab NATO to confront Iran, which the Egyptian leadership also wisely rejected a conscious understanding and appreciation of Israeli plans.
Conclusion:
The current war on Gaza is not like previous wars and rounds. Rather, it is a turning point in the history of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. There is no doubt that the results of this war will determine the fate of many equations, not only at the level of the Palestinian interior and the Israeli interior, but also at the regional and regional level. What is certain is that The Gaza War has proven that the Palestinian issue will remain a central issue for Arabs and Muslims and cannot be buried under the wheels of normalization and the attempts of some to establish strategic projects with Israel that will ultimately be unfavorable to Arab national security.
It is also important to emphasize that the Arab position, led by Egypt and supported by other effective Arab and regional countries, has so far demonstrated the ability to maneuver and move in dealing with one of the most dangerous crises in the region. Imposing the humanitarian path and insisting on bringing in aid despite all restrictions is considered an achievement that helps the Palestinians to Clinging to their land, as well as exerting pressure on Israel directly and indirectly through communications and meetings with leaders of major countries, contributed to changing some positions and we now see a country like France approaching the Arab position, and the American administration has become under constant pressure and is sometimes forced to restrain Netanyahu, who has the opportunity to pounce on the dream of establishing a Palestinian state.
All of these matters may not be recognized by public opinion in our countries, and we warn against attempts by some to belittle the extent of the effort being made, to incite discord, divide ranks, and undermine confidence in the Egyptian leadership. This is the time for absolute support and support, for not everything that is known can be said, but it is the limits of what is possible and available in the world politics and imbalances.
